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News & Monthly comments

22/04/2025

Monthly commentary March 2025

Popso (Suisse) Investment Fund SICAV

Macro and Asset Allocation

 

USA

 

In the U.S., preliminary aggregate PMIs (as measured by S&P) were better than expected (53.5 vs. 50.9) and well above the watershed level between economic expansion and contraction (50). The improvement was mainly due to a sharp rebound in services. Meanwhile, however, consumer confidence (both Conference Board and U. of Michigan) continued its decline. Americans are primarily concerned about economic uncertainty in the near future, inflation (which is expected to rise sharply) and the labor market. The "soft" data show strong concern but the "hard" data were more benign: personal incomes increase more than expected, personal spending rebounds from the previous month, and labor market data are in line with expectations. The labor market is still solid (unemployment at 4.2 percent) and orders to industry were higher than expected. However, these data refer to the period just ended and do not fully include the effects of the recently announced tariffs.

 

EUROZONE and SWITZERLAND

 

In Europe, the improvement in leading indicators of economic activity continues: manufacturing PMIs are still improving (although they are still at a level that predicts slight manufacturing contraction) while, at the aggregate level, the economy continues improve and is slight expansion driven by services. Economic expectations (as measured by the IFO) are improving in Germany while inflation in the major economies (France, Germany, Italy) is "under control" and in line with the ECB's target. Leading indicators for the Chinese economy are also improving slightly with national composite PMIs at a level consistent with economic expansion (51.4). In the Zone, year-on-year retail sales grew more than expected (2.3% vs. 1.9%) and composite PMIs remain in the economic expansion zone, driven by services. The unemployment rate falls to 6.1% (from 6.2%) and inflation continues to send reassuring signals

 

ASIA

 

In China, PMIs continue to indicate an expanding economy in both the service and manufacturing sectors. Surprising on the positive side was the growth in industrial production, which came in at +5.9 percent against firm expectations of +5.3 percent.

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