Monthly commentary March 2025

Macro and Asset Allocation

USA

In the U.S., preliminary aggregate PMIs (as measured by S&P) were better than expected (53.5 vs. 50.9) and well above the watershed level between economic expansion and contraction (50). The improvement was mainly due to a sharp rebound in services. Meanwhile, however, consumer confidence (both Conference Board and U. of Michigan) continued its decline. Americans are primarily concerned about economic uncertainty in the near future, inflation (which is expected to rise sharply) and the labor market. The "soft" data show strong concern but the "hard" data were more benign: personal incomes increase more than expected, personal spending rebounds from the previous month, and labor market data are in line with expectations. The labor market is still solid (unemployment at 4.2 percent) and orders to industry were higher than expected. However, these data refer to the period just ended and do not fully include the effects of the recently announced tariffs.

EUROZONE and SWITZERLAND

In Europe, the improvement in leading indicators of economic activity continues: manufacturing PMIs are still improving (although they are still at a level that predicts slight manufacturing contraction) while, at the aggregate level, the economy continues improve and is slight expansion driven by services. Economic expectations (as measured by the IFO) are improving in Germany while inflation in the major economies (France, Germany, Italy) is "under control" and in line with the ECB's target. Leading indicators for the Chinese economy are also improving slightly with national composite PMIs at a level consistent with economic expansion (51.4). In the Zone, year-on-year retail sales grew more than expected (2.3% vs. 1.9%) and composite PMIs remain in the economic expansion zone, driven by services. The unemployment rate falls to 6.1% (from 6.2%) and inflation continues to send reassuring signals

ASIA

In China, PMIs continue to indicate an expanding economy in both the service and manufacturing sectors. Surprising on the positive side was the growth in industrial production, which came in at +5.9 percent against firm expectations of +5.3 percent.

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Monthly commentary February 2025

Macro and Asset Allocation

USA

In the USA in February, unemployment rose to 4.1%, slightly above expectations, with new non-farm jobs (Nonfarm Payrolls) at 151k against the expected 160k and with a slight drop in wage growth to 0.3% mom from 0.5% the previous month. On the other hand, the ADP Employment Change figure was very low, signalling only 77k new jobs against expectations of almost double that amount. The ISM Manufacturing and Services indices scored 50.3 and 53.5 respectively, the former slightly below and the latter slightly above expectations. In terms of growth, the drop in Consumer Confidence is somewhat worrying. This was already evident in the previous week and was also confirmed by the index recorded by the Conference Board for February, which stood at 98.3 against expectations of 102.5. January's real estate figures were also negative, although influenced by the weather, with a drop in building permits (-0.6%), sales of new homes (-10.5%) and sales of existing homes already started (-5.2%) compared to the previous month. On the other hand, orders for durable goods were very positive at +3.1% mom.

EUROZONE and SWITZERLAND

In the Eurozone, the HCOB PMI Services for February came in at 50.6, practically in line with expectations. Retail sales in January were up +1.5% yoy against expectations of +2.0%. On the other hand, GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2024 was revised upwards with a final figure for the year of +1.2% yoy. The preliminary HCOB Manufacturing PMI for February was 47.6 against expectations of 47.3. Consumer inflation in February was +2.4% yoy and Core inflation was +2.6%, both slightly above expectations of +2.3% yoy and +2.5% respectively. In Switzerland too, the Manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations, reaching 49.6 against 48.2.

In Switzerland, the Services PMI remains solid at 56.8 and January inflation stood at +0.3% yoy with the Core at +0.9%, both above expectations, although still at very low levels.

ASIA

In China, in February, the Caixin PMI Services index scored 51.4, above expectations, the PMI Manufacturing index came out at 50.2 against expectations of 49.9, while the Non-Manufacturing index was 50.4 in line with expectations. Import (-8.4% yoy), export (+2.0% yoy) and inflation (CPI -0.7% and PPI -2.2% yoy) were weak and below expectations. The Central Bank (PBoC) left interest rates unchanged. Also in Asia, February export figures were mixed, with Taiwan at -3.0% yoy (vs. expectations of +2.7%) and South Korea

at +16.0% yoy for the first 20 days of the month (after -5.1% the previous month).

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Monthly comment January 2025

Macro and Asset Allocation

USA

In the U.S., inflation "bounced back," with January data coming in higher than expected, both on the CPI side (+3.0% yoy vs. +2.9% expected and Core +3.3% vs. +3.1%) and PPI (+3.5% vs. +3.3% and Core +3.6% vs. +3.3%). In short, the trend of recent months around 3% or even a small uptick is confirmed, although it must be said that it is quite common to have upward surprises in the first months of the year on inflation. Otherwise, January retail sales came in at -0.9% mom versus expectations at -0.2%, so a very negative figure, but upwardly revised from December and with weather and fire effects to be evaluated. In contrast, industrial production was solid at +0.5% mom. The ISM Manufacturing and Services indices showed converging trends, with the former index rising above expectations to 50.9 (and New Orders rising to 55.1) and the latter falling to 52.8, below expectations. Being the first week of the month, we had January labor market data with evidence of new job creation at 143k units (Nonfarm Payrolls), so below expectations and unemployment rate at 4.0%, slightly below expectations. Of some concern is the rise in hourly wages to +4.1% yoy versus expectations at +3.9.

EUROZONE and SWITZERLAND

In the Euro Zone, fourth quarter GDP growth was estimated at +0.9% yoy in line with expectations. December industrial production came in at -1.1% mom against expectations at -0.6%, with the Italian figure making a lot of "noise" given the sharp decline of -3.1% mom. In Switzerland, January inflation came in at +0.4% yoy in line with expectations, while Core sharply beat expectations at +0.9% yoy versus +0.6%. January's inidce PMI Services stood at 51.3, essentially stable. January producer price inflation (PPI) was +0.4% mom, but with zero growth over the previous year. Retail sales in January, on the other hand, registered +1.9% yoy. Unemployment in Switzerland stood at 2.7%, in line with expectations.

ASIA

In China upwardly surprised January credit expansion with aggregate financing at 7.06 trn yuan against expectations at 6.5 trn yuan. More restrained than expected, however, was the growth of M2 monetary aggregate at +7.0% yoy against expectations at +7.3%.  The Caixin Services PMI index stood at 51.0, down and below expectations (52.4). January's CPI yoy registered +0.5%, while PPI remains negative at -2.3% yoy.

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Monthly comment December 2024

Macro and Asset Allocation

USA

In the US in December there was a 256k new job creation (Nonfarm Payrolls) and the unemployment rate fell again to 4.1%. Consumer Confidence (U.of Mich.) for December dropped slightly to 73.2 from 74.0. We also report the release of strong ISM indices, with Manufacturing at 49.3, still below 50 but recovering and with growth in the New Orders component, and Services at 54.1, up and above expectations. These are signs of an economy travelling fast, around 3% (Atlanta Fed NowCast). In December, CPI inflation stood at +2.9% yoy, up from previous months. On the positive side, CPI Core rose less than expected at +3.2%. Retail sales, also in December, rose +0.4% yoy, less than expected, but still at a good level, given the strong growth (+0.8%) in the previous month. Industrial production was strong at +0.6% mom (expectations at +0.2%).

EUROZONE and SWITZERLAND

In the Eurozone the December Composite PMI (HCOB) (49.6) was up slightly from the previous month, as was CPI inflation at +2.4% yoy, while CPI Core at +2.7% yoy remained stable. Unemployment rate also remained stable at 6.3% in November and retail sales +1.2% yoy, below expectations of +1.7%. industrial production in November was +0.2% mom. In Switzerland, consumer confidence rose (SECO data) from -37.2 to -30.3

ASIA

In China, the December PMIs painted a mixed picture, with services up and industry down. There was a tentative recovery on the real estate front and some positive signs on consumption, due to stimulus measures, but the market remains sceptical. Consumer inflation in December was virtually nil at +0.1% yoy, while producer prices were still down -2.3% yoy. Strong export data in December (+10.7% yoy versus expectations at +7.5%) boosted the country's economic activity, which achieved GDP growth of +5.4% yoy in the fourth quarter (expectations at +5.0%). In particular, industrial production grew by +6.2% yoy in December (expectations at +5.4%) and retail sales by +3.7% yoy (expectations at +3.6%).

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Monthly comment November 2024

Macro and Asset Allocation

USA

In the US, the trend reversed between ISM Manufacturing which, while remaining in the contractionary area, rose from 46.5 to 48.4, with new orders above 50, and ISM Services which turned down to 52.1 from 56.0. October's industrial orders were +0.2% mom, in line with expectations. Labour market data showed new job creation (Non farm Payrolls) in November at 227k units, broadly in line with expectations. The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.2% and hourly wages came in at +4.0% yoy, above expectations and still well above pre-Covid levels. With productivity at 2%, the level is still acceptable to the Fed. Finally, consumer confidence as measured by the U. of. Michigan rose to 74.0, above expectations. Third quarter GDP growth was estimated at +2.8% qoq annualised, as expected, with consumption at +3.5% and Core PCE (price index) at +2.1%.

EUROZONE and SWITZERLAND

In the Eurozone, the November Services PMI (HCOB) remained below 50, dragging the Composite to 48.3. October retail sales rose +1.9% yoy, above expectations, while the October PPI turned positive in the month-on-month comparison at +0.4%.

Inflation (Core) in November +2.7% yoy (slightly below expectations) confirmed the recent stabilisation of price growth at the levels of recent months.

Q3 GDP growth in Switzerland was +2.0% yoy, higher than expected although revised down from the previous quarter. The KOF Leading Indicator also recovered to 101.8.

ASIA

In China, the Caixin Services PMI fell to 51.5 against expectations for growth at 52.4. Inflation in November gave mixed signals, as PPI at -2.5% yoy was up and better than expected, while CPI at +0.2% yoy was low and lower than expected, apparently showing how ineffective the consumption stimulus measures still were. Government PMI remained stable with the Composite at 50.8, although the future expectations component rose well. The Caixin Manufacturing PMI recovered above expectations at 51.3.

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Monthly comment October 2024

Macro and Asset Allocation
 

USA

In the US, October labour market data disappointed expectations, with new job creation (nonfarm payrolls) at 12k against an estimated 100k. However, in a month where there was the strong impact of a hurricane and major strikes, the figure may not be entirely true. Instead, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1% as expected. The ISM Manufacturing remained weak and in contraction territory at 46.5 against expectations at 47.6. Meanwhile, US GDP growth in the third quarter was estimated at +2.8% qoq, a very solid level, which also explains consumer confidence (U. of Michigan) which rose strongly in October to 108.7 versus expectations of 99.5. S&P Global's preliminary PMI signals for October indicate stability from the previous figure, both in services (in the expansion area above 50) and industry (in the contraction area below 50).

EUROZONE and SWITZERLAND

In the Eurozone, Q3 growth was not comparable to US growth, having been estimated at +0.4% qoq, but it was better than expectations of +0.2%. However, October inflation also turned out to be a little higher than expected at +2.0% yoy, with the Core figure at +2.7%. HCOB's Manufacturing PMI for October was noted to be slightly up at 46.0. Despite the continued slight recovery in Consumer Confidence measured by the European Commission, now at -12.5, new car registrations were -6.1% yoy in September. The HCOB Services PMI index for October rose slightly to 51.6, bringing the Composite to 50.0. September's PPI was -3.4% yoy, in line with expectations, while retail sales +2.9% yoy well above expectations of +1.3% and revised better than the previous month as well.

ASIA

In China, the October Government and Caixin Manufacturing PMIs came as an upside surprise, returning just above 50. The governmental Non-Manufacturing PMI was stable, also just above 50. October exports surprised to the upside with +12.7% yoy, while imports dropped -2.3% yoy. The very strong growth is partly a compensation for the negative effects of the hurricanes in September. Problem: October inflation data below expectations with CPI +0.3%, PPI -2.9% yoy.

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Discover the new range now

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Discover the new range of Popso (Suisse) Investment Fund SICAV investment funds:
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• Transparency: we answer all your questions.

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Premio Alto Rendimento and CFS Rating

Il Sole 24Ore, Italy’s foremost financial newspaper, awarded BPS (SUISSE) the 2024 Premio Alto Rendimento as runner-up in the “small” category of investment fund managers operating in Italy.
The ranking, based on models developed by the independent firm CFS Rating, assesses the performance of the entire product range in both the current and previous years. 

Based on its methodology, CFS Rating also published the annual guide “I 300 Migliori Fondi”, highlighting the top funds in Italy with the best risk-return profiles out of more than 12,000 available.
Popso (Suisse) Investment Fund SICAV is featured in the 2025 edition with three funds managed by BPS (SUISSE), two in CHF and one in EUR.

More details in the attached file.

Notice to shareholders

In the attached file you will find the Popso (Suisse) Investment Fund SICAV notice containing the last changes.

Enclosure: Information from Popso (Suisse) Investment Fund SICAV

CFS Rating 2024

Every year CFS Rating selects the best 300 investment funds on the Italian market among more than 12'000 products.

We are pleased to inform that the funds Swiss Conservative and Swiss Equity, both managed by BPS (SUISSE), have joined the BEST 300 in the Balanced – Bond Orientation and Equity Europe – Switzerland categories.

More details in the attached file.

Notice to shareholders

In the attached file you will find the Popso (Suisse) Investment Fund SICAV notice containing the last changes.

Enclosure: Information from Popso (Suisse) Investment Fund SICAV

Notice to shareholders

In the attached file you will find the Popso (Suisse) Investment Fund SICAV notice containing the last changes.

Enclosure: Information from Popso (Suisse) Investment Fund SICAV